【有机农业的盈利能力】David W. Crowder and John P. Reganold. Financial competitiveness of organic agriculture on a global scale. PNAS 2015 doi: 10.1073-pnas.1423674112.
一项研究发现，用有机方式生长的产品相对于传统方式生长的产品能够具有经济竞争力。尽管有机生产实践增强了农业的可 持续性，但是有机农田在全世界的扩张可 能还要依赖于有机农业相对于传统农业是否具有经济竞争力。David W. Crowder 和John P. Reganold分析了40年时间里5大洲的55种同时用有机方法和传统方法种植的农作物的经济表现。这些作者发现，当溢价不适用于有机方法生长的农作物 的时候，它的收益-成本比率显著低于传统方法种植的农作物，而以盈利能力衡量的有机农业的净现值比传统农业低至27%。然而，应用溢价让有机农业比传统农 业盈利多了至多35%，而且尽管溢价范围在29%到32%之间，盈亏平衡点溢价在5%到7%之间。与传统农业相比，有机农业的产量低了18%，劳动力成本 高了至多13% 。这组作者说，这些结果提示，尽管有机农田目前仅占了农业用地的1%，即便随着有机溢价下降，有机实践方法也可能持续扩张，而且可能为供养这个世界贡献不 断增长的份额。(来源：EurekAlert!)
Abstract
To promote global food and ecosystem security several innovative farming systems have been identified that better balance multiple sustainability goals. The most rapidly growing and contentious of these systems is organic agriculture. Whether organic agriculture can continue to expand will likely be determined by whether it is economically competitive with conventional agriculture. Here we examined the financial performance of organic and conventional agriculture by conducting a meta-analysis of a global dataset spanning 55 crops grown on five continents. When organic premiums were not applied benefit-cost ratios (−8 to −7%) and net present values (−27 to −23%) of organic agriculture were significantly lower than conventional agriculture. However when actual premiums were applied organic agriculture was significantly more profitable (22–35%) and had higher benefit-cost ratios (20–24%) than conventional agriculture. Although premiums were 29–32% breakeven premiums necessary for organic profits to match conventional profits were only 5–7% even with organic yields being 10–18% lower. Total costs were not significantly different but labor costs were significantly higher (7–13%) with organic farming practices. Studies in our meta-analysis accounted for neither environmental costs (negative externalities) nor ecosystem services from good farming practices which likely favor organic agriculture. With only 1% of the global agricultural land in organic production our findings suggest that organic agriculture can continue to expand even if premiums decline. Furthermore with their multiple sustainability benefits organic farming systems can contribute a larger share in feeding the world.