【明确定义“亚热带地区”】Richard T. Corlett. Where are the Subtropics? Biotropica 2013 DOI: 10.1111-btp.12028
Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis.Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13 2793-2825 2013
Abstract
The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project which spans the full model hierarchy we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000 temperature decreases only slightly whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First Second and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr