【寻找国家尺度的土地可持续发展途径】Lei Gao & Brett A. Bryan. Finding pathways to national-scale land-sector sustainability. Nature 544 217–222 (13 April 2017) doi:10.1038-nature21694
Abstract
The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets under Agenda 2030 of the United Nations1 2 map a coherent global sustainability ambition at a level of detail general enough to garner consensus amongst nations3. However achieving the global agenda will depend heavily on successful national-scale implementation4 which requires the development of effective science-driven targets3 tailored to specific national contexts1 and supported by strong national governance. Here we assess the feasibility of achieving multiple SDG targets at the national scale for the Australian land-sector. We scaled targets to three levels of ambition and two timeframes then quantitatively explored the option space for target achievement under 648 plausible future environmental socio-economic technological and policy pathways using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) integrated land systems model5 6. We show that target achievement is very sensitive to global efforts to abate emissions domestic land-use policy productivity growth rate and land-use change adoption behaviour and capacity constraints. Weaker target-setting ambition resulted in higher achievement but poorer sustainability outcomes. Accelerating land-use dynamics after 2030 changed the targets achieved by 2050 warranting a longer-term view and
